Disclaimer: a lot of views in the article are based on conviction and gut feel and i may not have any numbers to support my views...
lets look at media first...
Unlike in politics, incumbency is a boon in the media business. Its a headstart people will give their right hand for. And also unlike politics, its very difficult to remove an incumbent in media.
We have a very interesting situation in Mumbai. We are witnessing one of the most interesting battles in this media fiefdom called the "newspaper".
Times Of India has been the undisputed lord of this fiefdom in Mumbai.And that for decades.But now we have two candidates trying their might on the "as-of-now" impregnable fortress.Both Hindustan Times and DNA have in their own way started their journey, which they also understand is a going to be a long one and not necessarily successful.
lets see what was the state of ToI before these guys came in:
- Decades of dominance has made it complacent.
- Editorials are more often than not an apology for the meaning of the word.
- It was on its way to becoming a complete tabloid.
Lets see what it is after these guys came in:
- It is a few more steps down the lane to becoming a tabloid.
- In fact it has come up with a new tabloid itself, "Mumbai Mirror".
as far as i can see it, a response from ToI is conspicuous by its absence.
And this complacency is reflected across the board for the whole group Bennett & Coleman itself.
ET- the financial newspaper - is also one tabloid.
I strongly believe Cartoon Network can poach a few talented artists from ET because it has got better cartoonists than journalists.
Quite a few times a personality like Penelope Cruz is on the front page. If you are thinking why should that be for a business daily, then you are normal.
Getting the Who's Who in Indian Inc. to take over the editorial is an obsession with ET which makes me believe that the post is probably filled in by a non-serious part-timer.This belief is also supported by the quality of editorials.
The research work is shoddy and appalling and quite a few of the news items seem to be planted.
ET sells the paper on Saturday and Sunday at an obscene 9 Rs. Thats taking the "bottomline" focus a little too seriously.
So much for what is considered to be the best business daily in the country. There is more but we will leave that for some other day.
Now lets come to Radio Mirchi, the group's FM radio arm.
- they tell us that only 5% of the listener are "out-of-home" type.I dont know when this research was done but i will be shocked if the result is similar if the survey is done today. In the last 3 years, we have sold millions of mobile phones and a decent percentage of them would have FM. 5% number comes from the Stone Age i believe.
But that doesnt stop them from floating this so called "fact" around to support the "fact" that people dont switch channels.
- One of their other researches point out that only 5% people recall RJs and are therefore are irrelevant in the broader sense of things.
I wouldnt mind being absolutely unimportant and get paid 3 lac per month for being so.
With no content differentiation,RJs are probably the only link you have to make people stick around with your channel.But for them this is "irrelevant".
- They feel RJs having contacts in Bollywood are really important. I think RJs able to connect with people are a thousand times better.
- No wonder their programming content is hopeless.
What will probably happen is:
- HT would probably give ToI a run for its money much before a lot of people expect, if at all they expect.
- ET has already shown a drop of 25% in its readership in the last one year.Its a question of time before a quality daily like maybe a Hindu Business Line or somebody else will topple ET.
- Radio Mirchi will be no different.
And if these things turn out as i think they will, BCCL will become even more bottomline focused and give us more even more crap. Because that is the way they believe they can make money.
This "give-crap-n-take value' relationship is not sustainable.
In short I see BCCL group not being the same dominant group as before.And thats an understatement.
now lets our attention to Chennai where Deccan Chronicle is trying to create a dent in the Hindu stronghold. DC's contention is that its not too difficult because Hindu is not contemporary and DC will give people what they want.
Well, this "tits"-n-"bits" approach is going to attract some "eyes"-n-"balls". But only for some time.
Again, betting in a "nuisance vs value" fight is a no brainer.
In the TV business, we have seen leadership change 2-3 times now.
First we had Doordarshan, a monopoly and so a default leader.
But it did have some very popular serials like "Hum Log" and "Buniyaad".
TV business is a little different from newspaper in the sense that value here is in "entertainment" whereas "information" is what matters in a newspaper.But DD never renovated itself.
And when Zee came along in the early 90's, people yearning for a change just grabbed it with both hands and the slide of DD began. And it is still sliding for a number of reasons.
"Hum Paanch" and "Tara" became talk of the town in every town.And Zee prospered. Everything Zee did seemed to be perfect.
But over a period the offerings lost their freshness and again there seemed to be a vacuum.
This is when Star TV, KBC and Ekta Kapoor came along and just blew away Zee in practically no time.We have had a Star monopoly on prime time since then.Again whatever Star did seemed to be perfect.
Today we are at a stage where Star offerings are turning stale. It needs a renovation or it is a question of time before somebody blows them away.
the most likely candidate seems to be Zee again. Its got the momentum going. Some of its operas have started to feature in the top rung of the ratings.
Zee will have to keep delivering on content and maybe we have another change in leadership on the cards.
Now lets come to airlines.
The domestic story about LCCs and their increasing market share is all well known.
But what is not well known is that Yash Chopra, Javed Akhtar and Shahrukh Khan are on the Board of Directors of Jet Airways!!!
I would not be surprised if you hear Shahrukh Khan make in-flight announcements a few days from now.
What is also not probably well known is that Jet agreed to buy Sahara Airlines for a meagerly sum of Rs. 2500 Cr, when all it was interested in getting was the parking lots and some other airport infrastructure.That Sahara was losing money with every flight that was taking off didnt probably come to the notice of Jet!!!
Fortunately Jet on-the-ground performance has still not reflected the events of the boardroom. But that doesnt necessarily augur well for the shareholders i think. Because that leaves the scope for a Rani Mukherjee or Preity Zinta to join the Board.
Other airlines are eating away at Jet and it busy digesting Sahara, which is essentially "nothing". God bless Jet's shareholders.Amen!!!
